Tropical turbulence shows better organization over the Caribbean; Tropical Storm Bonnie soon expected

Tropical turbulence in the Caribbean shows better regulation Wednesday afternoon and could soon be classified as Tropical Storm Bonnie, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“High-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates the system may be attempting to close a center south of the ABC Islands, but surface observations remain highly inconclusive,” wrote NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Bash. “Radar images from Curaçao do not yet show a specific center. The system could turn into a tropical cyclone at any time. »

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Plane surveyed the system Wednesday afternoon, but found it not organized enough to classify the disturbance as a tropical storm. Forecasts show light storm strength, but no strong intensification through the end of this week as it approaches the southwestern Caribbean, where the system could become the first hurricane of the season.

Heavy rains and tropical storm winds are likely through Thursday morning for the Windward Islands, parts of northern Venezuela and northern Colombia, the National Hurricane Center said at 11 p.m. Wednesday.

The system is located 65 miles east-southeast of the northern tip of Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph shifting westward at 21 mph, starting at 23 hour day. Tropical storm warnings have been suspended for Curacao and Aruba.

And although the system remained disorganized, hurricane specialists suspect it could change over the next 12 hours.

“One of the reasons the system hasn’t been able to stop traffic so far is that the speed is too high,” said NHC’s Eric Blake. But the models show that the turbulence is stable in the evening. After that, the system should stop condensing for two days. By Friday, Blake said, he could jump again.

A tropical storm warning is in place for Trinidad and Tobago; Granada and its dependencies and parts of the Colombian coast. As it continues westward, the system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua on Friday evening.

The system has tropical storm force winds that extend up to 70 miles from the center of the system. If named, it would be Tropical Storm Bonnie. The NHC gives it a 90% chance of forming within the next five days.

“On the forecast track, the system will pass … near Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later Thursday and Friday,” the NHC said.

Meteorologists are also watching for two other disturbances that could develop into a tropical system.

The turbulence area increased precipitation and thunderstorms overnight and over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Further development is possible, but the system is currently still unregulated. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of forming in a tropical system over the next two to five days as it slowly drifts west across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into Texas. He is expected to move inside Texas on Thursday.

An Air Force Reserve aircraft from Hurricane Hunter was deployed to investigate and showed the system to be poorly organized.

“Some slow development is still possible and could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before turning northwest and moving inland over Texas later Thursday. Regardless of development , heavy rain is likely over parts of the Texas coast for the next few days.

Additionally, a tropical wave over the tropical central Atlantic Ocean produces unregulated showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to touch another tropical wave later this week and may develop. The NHC gave the surge a 10% chance of becoming a depression within two days and a 30% within five days.

If either system develops, it would be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which dumped nearly a foot of rain on parts of Florida earlier this month.

After Bonnie, the next names will be Colin and Danielle.

A tropical system can qualify as a tropical depression without becoming a tropical storm condition. It was not named until the system withstood 39 mph winds and was not named a hurricane until it withstood 74 mph winds.

The 2022 season runs from June 1 to November. The year is expected to be another 30 years above normal for storms after the 30 storms designated for 2020 and 21 for 2021.

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